Estimating the potential population-level impact of a norovirus vaccine that reduces symptoms and viral shedding among breakthrough infections using mathematical modeling

Maria Garcia Quesada, Emory University

Andreas Handel, University of Georgia Aniruddha Deshpande, Emory University Elizabeth Rogawski McQuade, Emory University Benjamin Lopman, Emory University

Vaccines and immunity

Background. Norovirus is the leading cause of diarrheal disease globally, and young children and older adults are most susceptible to severe outcomes. A norovirus vaccine challenge trial showed limited efficacy against infection but substantial impact on disease by reducing symptoms and viral shedding among breakthrough infections. We sought to estimate potential population-level impact of a similar vaccine.
Methods. We used a deterministic, age-structured compartmental model to estimate the population-level effects of pediatric and adult norovirus vaccination in the US. We estimated norovirus cases, outpatient visits, hospitalizations, and deaths averted under a range of vaccination scenarios.
Results. Pediatric vaccination completed by 6 months of age with 80% coverage may avert about a third of norovirus cases annually among children